Brasilia – The reduction in river water levels in the Amazon during severe and extreme droughts can affect different dimensions of the lives of communities that depend on them: from food and income generation to mobility and access to essential services. It is in this context that the bulletin “Drought and Risk of Immobility in the Amazon Basin” was prepared jointly by the IOM, the UN Migration Agency, the National Center for Monitoring and Alerts of Natural Disasters (Cemaden), and researchers from Humboldt University of Berlin (IRI THESys, HU-Berlin), the Autonomous University of Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), and the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), with support from the Brazilian Network for Research on Global Climate Change (Rede Clima). The bulletin identifies locations where the reduction in river water levels during El Niño months can increase the risk of immobility.
The November 2026 edition inaugurates a series of monthly editions that will be produced throughout the Amazonian dry season , with the aim of monitoring the evolution of hydrological conditions and their possible impacts on the mobility of Amazonian communities, offering information that can support the planning and decision-making of public managers and professionals who work directly with vulnerable populations.
The Amazon region has many areas prone to immobility
Among the municipalities analyzed, São Gabriel da Cachoeira, in Amazonas, has the highest number of localities prone to immobility: 343, of which 318 are indigenous. The municipality is followed by Lábrea, with 72 localities, Manicoré, with 68, Fonte Boa, with 66, and Atalaia do Norte, with 64. The analysis also points to areas of concern in the states of Acre, Rondônia, and Pará.
Complementing analyses that only consider the intensity of droughts, the bulletin seeks to identify where prolonged reductions in river levels could become a mobility problem for populations. To this end, locations are considered prone to immobility if they are simultaneously within five kilometers of rivers and floodplains, more than five kilometers from roads, and in areas where river levels are predicted to be below historical averages for prolonged periods. The analysis is based on data from 90 river gauging stations.
The concept of involuntary immobility, used in the production of the bulletin, refers to situations where individuals or communities are unable to leave their places of origin or residence due to extreme weather events or other types of disasters.
As researchers Letícia S. Lima (SPA Author) and Wilson Fernandes explain , “The method we developed, still undergoing improvement, allows us to infer which regions contain localities that, due to their relative distances, are likely more dependent on waterborne transport and where, during the month of analysis, water levels are predicted to be below expectations for a longer period. In the coming months, we will work to refine these results and hope they can support decisions to assist communities . ”
Drought can affect mobility, agriculture, and access to services
The bulletin also cross-references the location of communities prone to immobility with drought alerts for family farming produced by Cemaden. This combination allows for the identification of areas where the effects of drought may occur simultaneously on agricultural production and mobility, suggesting a greater risk to food security.
“The Drought Alert estimates the probability of drought impacts on family farming, integrating drought intensity, local vulnerability, and forecast of worsening. The tool allows identifying municipalities at risk of losses in short-cycle rainfed crops, supporting proactive actions to reduce productive, social, and economic impacts,” explains Ana Paula Cunha, coordinator of institutional relations and drought researcher at Cemaden.
This scenario gains relevance given the climatic conditions predicted for the coming months. According to the El Niño 2026–2027 Panel, coordinated by INPE, INMET, ANA, and Cemaden, there is a 95% probability of a very strong El Niño occurring in the October-November-December quarter. The phenomenon could be among the most intense recorded since 1950.
Recent data from Cemaden also points to concerns regarding the Northern Region. On October 7th, the levels of the main rivers showed conditions close to or below the climatological average in the North, with an increase in the number of stations registering levels well below average in the northern portion of the region. For November, the forecast indicates a predominance of flows below or well below average in much of the Northern Region.
Monitoring by Cemaden also shows that the drought is affecting indigenous areas. In September, 170 of the 275 base stations monitored by the agency showed some form of drought, equivalent to 61.8%.
“When rivers recede, the impacts on many Amazonian communities can extend to various dimensions of life, including access to essential services. By identifying in advance where conditions are at risk of worsening, we want to contribute to the planning and implementation of solutions that are appropriate to the needs of the people impacted,” explains Débora Castiglione, National Officer for Environment, Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction at IOM.
Drought and Risk of Immobility in the Amazon Basin bulletin seeks to expand monitoring capacity and support institutional responses to the climate crisis in the region. The initiative gives visibility to vulnerable populations in the Amazon, especially indigenous communities affected by isolation and involuntary immobility caused by extreme droughts. By integrating expertise in disaster anticipation and impacts on family farming, the bulletin strengthens climate governance and provides support for preventive and humanitarian protection policies, reaffirming the commitment of science and human rights to the future of the Amazon,” points out Érica Menero, from the Climate Network.
Access the full bulletin here: link
